Asia Risk Return Blog
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Sun, 20 Jun 2010 16:48:35 +0000
After 23 months of holding to its US dollar peg, China decided Saturday to break the peg and adopt a managed float with reference to an undisclosed currency basket. This new currency regime starts Monday June 21. We can speculate whether China gave into foreign pressure, as the decision came ahead of this week’s G20 [...]Actions »
Sun, 13 Jun 2010 09:14:01 +0000
Hopes are surprisingly high for the new “fiscal conservative” PM Kan. Most polls show his popularity over 60%. Kan’s predecessor, former PM Hatoyama, started out with an approval rating of 75% but, one blunder after another saw his popularity sink to below 20% in the end. Unlike Hatoyama, PM Kan has been quick to speak [...]Actions »
Fri, 11 Jun 2010 16:30:45 +0000
BULL VERSUS BEAR ON CHINA – TPC Why is the Chinese government allowing workers to strike? – Fortune Is China’s labour market at a turning-point? – The Economist Questioning Keynes – Fortune Reviewing — and Roasting — the Perma-Bears - The Big Picture (Bloomberg article) Are Foreign Currency Loans Endangering Eastern Europe? – NYT – [...]Actions »
Sat, 05 Jun 2010 15:25:10 +0000
With Europe in a bind, China supposedly slowing down and the US job market barely recovering, investors are eagerly looking for some convincing evidence the global recovery will continue. So far in June, the news has been far too mixed for comfort. While no one expects Europe to drive the global economy any time soon, [...]Actions »
Wed, 02 Jun 2010 17:15:32 +0000
DEBT DELEVERAGING WILL TAKE SEVERAL YEARS – TPC (Prolonged period of strong earnings is the solution. Will low rates and reflation create such a world? Few if any believe the bullish outcome…) Bernanke: Emerging markets play stabilizing role – Reuters (…then there are emerging markets) Who are Asia’s hedge fund hotties for 2010? – Asian [...]Actions »
Wed, 02 Jun 2010 16:40:26 +0000
Maybe I’ve grown a little too cynical of Japan in recent months but I’m definitely not the only one. While exports are surging and the economy is supposedly recovering, the unemployment rate in Japan is edging higher…In the 9 months he was in office, Hatoyama did a grand job of breaking promises and reversing policies. [...]Actions »
Thu, 27 May 2010 17:45:51 +0000
So what we should really be asking right now isn’t whether we’re about to turn into Greece. We should, instead, be asking what we’re doing to avoid turning Japanese. And the answer is, nothing. How many times have you heard a bearish story on how the US may face a lost decade similar to Japan’s? [...]Actions »
Wed, 26 May 2010 15:03:56 +0000
There were 14 hedge funds managing to stay in the top 50 the past 2 years while posting a positive return in 2009. They were Balestra Capital (holds on to #2 spot), Element Capital, Paulson, Shumway Capital, Pivot Capital, Odey Asset, Harbinger Capital, Platinum Mangement, Passport Capital, Soros Management, Brevan Howard, MKP Capital, Graham Capital, [...]Actions »
Sun, 23 May 2010 15:23:48 +0000
Is now the time to be Bearish? The way the markets moved the past few weeks, many will likely be inclined to believe so. It appears fear overcame any sense of greed as equity markets lost over 10%. It wasn’t as if there was no forewarning though. Remember where VIX, interest rate spreads and bullish [...]Actions »
Fri, 23 Apr 2010 17:25:09 +0000
The past week gave us some surprisingly strong earnings numbers but the dark clouds hovering over Wall Street discourage investors to get too excited about the recovery. Nevertheless, it should be clearer by now this recovery is for real. As always, though, there will be the bears who believe near zero rates won’t do much [...]Actions »
Sat, 17 Apr 2010 15:42:50 +0000
Are Defaults Really Driving Retail Spending? – The Big Picture (Let me get this straight. If you are still at risk of going bankrupt and the government is giving you a helping hand, you go out and spend like there’s no tomorrow. I don’t buy this argument at all! Many times, people try to come [...]Actions »
Sat, 17 Apr 2010 05:42:13 +0000
Levels of cash and growth expectations of investors are often times useful contrary indicators. The April BoFA Merrill Lynch Survey of Fund Managers shows investors are becoming a little too complacent for comfort. While there is always the possibility complacency could last awhile, a skeptical consensus view of the global recovery will keep the risk [...]Actions »
Sat, 17 Apr 2010 03:52:11 +0000
After 7 months in office, PM Hatoyama’s popularity is falling so fast, it wouldn’t be surprising to see single digit approval ratings soon from a peak of over 70 percent at the start. Voters are upset over Hatoyama’s lack of leadership on all fronts, backtracking on election promises and money scandals involving the party’s Kingpin [...]Actions »
Tue, 13 Apr 2010 15:33:07 +0000
Global markets continued to recover through March after a tough start for the year and hedge funds globally were able to recoup losses incurred the first couple months, according to Eurekahedge (updates to April 12). Markets in Asia seemed a little top-heavy since question marks remain over the sustainability of the global recovery. Investors still [...]Actions »
Sun, 11 Apr 2010 17:22:58 +0000
BIS: The Future of Public Debt – The Big Picture – (Rising debt burden of developed economies…there is a never ending need for public spending on infrastructure; cost of production is high for the developed world; problem of aging population and more…What should the developed world do? How long will it take before developing economies [...]Actions »
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